Thursday, July 12, 2012

THE SINGLE MOST UNDERRATED AND OVERRATED BASEBALL PLAYERS IN HISTORY



Albert Belle is the most underrated, under appreciated Major League Baseball Player in the history of the game.  In contrast, Tony Gwynn, beloved Padres fixture, is the most overrated.  Belle is a close call, but Gwynn wins by a landslide.  The average reader (and sports writer for that matter) might think I accidentally switched the two names; trust me, I didn’t.  These selections are based on pure statistical review, leaving out the media’s misrepresentations and deceptions.

Let’s start with Albert Belle, who played for multiple teams from 1989 to 2000.  He finished his career with 381 home runs and 1239 RBI’s, despite limited plate appearances in ’89 and ’90 and strike shortened seasons in ’94 and ’95.  From ’91 to ’99 he was baseball’s most dangerous hitter.  He should have won 3 MVP awards during the time frame.  Finishing second to Mo Vaughn in the ’95 season MVP balloting was one of the biggest sports writer rape jobs in baseball history, as Belle became the first (and only) player in history to compile 50 or more home runs and doubles in the same season.  Remember, that was a strike shortened season.  His awesome performance crescendoed toward the end of the season as he led the Cleveland Indians to the World Series.  He narrowly missed a second 50/50 season in ’98.  For his career, Belle ended with a .564 slugging average, 13th all time, ahead of Hall of Fame slugging legends like Mays, Aaron, and Mantle.  Oh, and might I add, over a hundred points ahead of first year Hall of Fame inductee Tony Gwynn (career slugging average .459).  Arrogant and vindictive sports writers unfairly labeled Belle to be a one dimensional player, when in fact he had better than average outfielder range, a powerful arm (a strong pitcher in college), and solid base running skills.  The suggestion that Belle has been overlooked for Hall of Fame voting due to a short career may appear to have merit on the surface, but understand that voters inducted players with short careers like Sandy Koufax and Hack Wilson.

Tony Gwynn has been hailed to be one of baseball’s all time greatest, purest hitters.  Playing his entire career in San Diego, Gwynn compiled a lifetime .338 career batting average (15th all time) and 3141 hits (18th).  He’s also known to be a good guy, approachable for the public and media alike.  So what’s my problem with Gwynn?  He just wasn’t a particularly valuable baseball player.  While I liked him as a human being and baseball personality, he was merely a cut above average in terms of true offensive production.  Did you know that Gwynn only had over 75 RBI’s twice during his 20 year career?  He also only scored more than 100 runs twice.

There are two parts to the gross misunderstanding of these two players, Belle and Gwynn.  The first part has to deal with baseball’s over-reliance on batting average as a meaningful reflection of a player’s value.  This misconception has developed from baseball’s infancy and initial lack of statistical bearing (and calculators).  Batting average, in and of itself, should only be a secondary statistic.  Yes, if a player bats .300, with 100 RBI’s and 30 HR’s, they are, indeed, a good player.  However, if the player hits .318 with 57 RBI’s, 61 runs, and 7 homeruns, over the course of an entire season, they are average ballplayers--unless they play shortstop, second base, or catcher.  Thus, Tony Gwynn was an outfielder with slightly better than average production.  Gwynn was best in the ‘90’s, just like Albert Belle.  Belle generated well over 50 more runs per season for his teams than Tony Gwynn did for the Padres.  Gwynn has been enshrined in the Hall of Fame.  Belle will never be inducted.

The second part of the problem relates to unfair sports writers, who are responsible for ignoring a truly dominant player like Belle and worshiping an average player like Gwynn.  While many writers don’t fully understand the statistical summary provided here (they will in years to come), most just show favoritism to accommodating players.  I understand Belle reportedly drank excessively early in his career and was subject to temper tantrums.  I don’t care.  I believe he should receive the credit he is due.  Let me know what you think.

7 comments:

  1. I disagree with the Tony Gwynn selection and really like the Albert Belle selection. Here are my disagreements:

    1) Your statistical depiction of Tony Gwynn as a "mere" .318 hitter is .020 points lower than what it should be.
    2) This is a big difference in a historical context since his .338 lifetime average is the highest for any player that played their entire career after baseball was integrated in 1947. In fact, he his career average is .010 better than second over this time period.
    3) You claim that Gwynn is an average player in terms of value added. Yet, Tony Gwynn has 68.8 career WAR (14th all time amongst RF; 7th all time amongst RF after 1947), one season above 8 WAR, and 5 seasons above 5 WAR according to baseball references.
    4) He did well against the best pitchers of his day and the elite strikeout pitchers of his day had a hard time striking him out (http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/batter_vs_pitcher.cgi?batter=gwynnto01).
    5) While, in most contexts, batting average by itself is not a good all around indicator, an extremely good batting average may be. Moneyballers will tell you that a walk is the same as a hit, and that is in somewhat true. However, they are not the same with one out and a runner on second or on two outs with a runner on third. Baseball is still situational at the end of the day. A good OBP that is largely obtained from hitting is more valuable than the same OBP that is largely obtained through walking.

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    1. Love your thoughtful response--thank you! A couple comments:
      1. The .318 depiction was a general illustration in relation to a .300 power hitter. As mentioned earlier in the post, I'm aware Tony Gwynn was a career .338 hitter, an amazing accomplishment in and of itself, especially in his era. Unfortunately, it didn't equate to impressive run production, which is the driving force to truly influencing a team's winning record.
      2. I appreciate your WAR reference. However, I don't think the tool works--guess I'm from the Bill James school of thinking.

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    2. This is coming 5 years later, but did you ever consider who gwynn was playing with? Hard to get RBIs and score runs when you are the only one on your team that can hit

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  2. The two biggest, well, ONLY knocks on Tony Gwynn's amazing career was his low season numbers of RBIs and Runs. Do you know how you get those? With people hitting in front of you and behind you. Gwynn didn't have that.
    Belle, along with other great players...did. It's just that simple. How many Hall of Famers or All Star hitters can you name from the Padres from the 80s and 90s. Ken Caminiti was the only All Star hitter, and he was only there for 4 years. Gwynn played on a lot of bad teams and only made the post-season 3 times out of this 20 years.
    Even though Gwynn was a first ballot HOFer, I still consider him one of the most UNDERrated players of all time. 3141 hits. .338 life time average. His rookie year was the only year he hit under .300...when he still got a very respectable .289. 15 time All Star. Hit .324 in his last year in MLB at 41 years old. 319 stolen bases. 4 Gold Gloves. Lifetime OBP of .388. Got over 190 hits in a season 7 times, and would have been 8 if it wasn't for the Strike season where he ended it hitting .394.
    What more do you want from him? Tony Gwynn doesn't get the love he deserved became he played in a relatively smaller market not interested in baseball, on the west coast, on very bad teams, and limited post season experience...where his lifetime post season average is still above .300. There are lots of baseball rankings of the top 50 or 100 players of all time, and Gwynn usually ends up somewhere around 35-50 which is an absolute travesty. Put his hitting stats up there with anyone, and he's top 20. Add in all his stolen bases and Gold Gloves, and he becomes top 10.
    Knocking Tony Gwynn down because he didn't have enough RBIs and Runs is like saying Dan Marino is an bad overrated quarterback because he never won a Super Bowl. What other decent players were even on Tony and Dan's teams?

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  5. Imagine this ;If your pitching ahead by a run with 2 outs 9th inning. Runners on 2nd and 3rd. Would you walk Albert Belle (or anyone not named ted williams)if Gwynn was hitting behind him? NO way.

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